Professor Nuria Mas recently delivered a session on the Global Economic Outlook at IESE Business School. Lets look at what’s going to happen to the global economy over the next 30 years.
Here’s the summary in bullet points and some photos of the key slides.
The Global Economic Outlook to 2050
- US and Europe are going from 50% of world GDP to 25% in 2045; China and India will make up almost 50% of World GDP by 2045.
- The western middle classes are the only major population category that has seen no improvement in GDP per capital over last 30 years; most poor grew 17%, 50 percentile grew 76%, richest 1% grew 65%
- USA is first ever nation with increasing GDP and reducing life expectancy- major reductions in life expectancy are white 45-55 years old.
- The biggest likelihood & impact (can damage people & institutions) major events are climate events, and cyberattacks.
- 9000 net new babies born every hour. Mostly in Asia. (15,000 born, 6,000 die; Europe’s contribution is 182 babies net per hour… that leaves 8,818 from other parts of the world)
- Unfunded liabilities are huge in western economies
- Major job losses are on the middle income jobs.
- It is not globalization but technology (job automation) that is leading to the loss of middle class jobs in advanced societies
- USA, Japan, Germany have lots of debt; but they owe most of it to themselves. Spain owes 86% of its debt to foreigners. Ireland’s total debt is 7x it’s GDP.
Some of the Data & Graphs from the Event:
India and China are growing to become 50% of the world GDP by 2045.
Here’s those 9,000 net new lives per hour. You can see the areas with major population growth coming in the next 30 years, and the areas that will not see population growth.
The Economic centre of gravity is moving east… to rest between India and China.
The 2 major world risks are Climate (all the green dots) and Cyberattacks (the purple dot).
Job losses in western societies have been predominantly on mid-level skilled jobs. High skilled work and no-skilled work have not been affected as drastically.
US – rising mortality even as GDP per capita is rising. This has never happened before.
There’s lots of debt out there. It is more complex than this graph, but the next generation will be shouldered with lots of debts made for this generation.
Is your job at risk? Recreational therapists, Dentists and Athletic trainers low risk of automation. Retail salespeople, accountants and telemarketers will almost certainly be replaced by technology.
The 3 best paid, least vulnerable jobs are CEO, doctor and dentist.
That’s the next 30 years. Are you ready for the changes?
What are your thoughts?