Professor Nuria Mas recently delivered a session on the Global Economic Outlook at IESE Business School.  Lets look at what’s going to happen to the global economy over the next 30 years.

Here’s the summary in bullet points and some photos of the key slides.

The Global Economic Outlook to 2050

  • US and Europe are going from 50% of world GDP to 25% in 2045; China and India will make up almost 50% of World GDP by 2045.
  • The western middle classes are the only major population category that has seen no improvement in GDP per capital over last 30 years; most poor grew 17%, 50 percentile grew 76%, richest 1% grew 65%
  • USA is first ever nation with increasing GDP and reducing life expectancy- major reductions in life expectancy are white 45-55 years old.
  • The biggest likelihood & impact (can damage people & institutions) major events are climate events, and cyberattacks.
  • 9000 net new babies born every hour. Mostly in Asia.  (15,000 born, 6,000 die;  Europe’s contribution is 182 babies net per hour… that leaves 8,818 from other parts of the world)
  • Unfunded liabilities are huge in western economies
  • Major job losses are on the middle income jobs.
  • It is not globalization but technology (job automation) that is leading to the loss of middle class jobs in advanced societies
  • USA, Japan, Germany have lots of debt; but they owe most of it to themselves. Spain owes 86% of its debt to foreigners. Ireland’s total debt is 7x it’s GDP.

Some of the Data & Graphs from the Event:

India and China are growing to become 50% of the world GDP by 2045.

Here’s those 9,000 net new lives per hour.  You can see the areas with major population growth coming in the next 30 years, and the areas that will not see population growth.

The Economic centre of gravity is moving east… to rest between India and China.

The 2 major world risks are Climate (all the green dots) and Cyberattacks (the purple dot).

Job losses in western societies have been predominantly on mid-level skilled jobs.  High skilled work and no-skilled work have not been affected as drastically.

US – rising mortality even as GDP per capita is rising.  This has never happened before.

There’s lots of debt out there.  It is more complex than this graph, but the next generation will be shouldered with lots of debts made for this generation.

Is your job at risk?  Recreational therapists, Dentists and Athletic trainers low risk of automation.  Retail salespeople, accountants and telemarketers will almost certainly be replaced by technology.

The 3 best paid, least vulnerable jobs are CEO, doctor and dentist.  

That’s the next 30 years.  Are you ready for the changes?

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Nitin Nohria, Dean of Harvard Business School will be speaking at IESE Business School in Barcelona next Monday 13th.

“It is my desire to inspire people of all ages and social demographics to think about leadership on a broad level, contemplate what it means to them and what individual impact they can have when it comes to leading,” Nitin Nohria.

What does Leadership mean to you?

As a simple reflection, I share 2 short poems:

The Serenity Prayer

(paraphrased by me…)

Give me the strength to change the things I can change;
The patience to accept the things I cannot change
and the wisdom to tell the difference.

Author: Reinhold Niebuhr, 1943

“I Wanted To Change The World”

When I was a young man, I wanted to change the world.

I found it was difficult to change the world, so I tried to change my nation.

When I found I couldn’t change the nation, I began to focus on my town. I couldn’t change the town and as an older man, I tried to change my family.

Now, as an old man, I realize the only thing I can change is myself, and suddenly I realize that if long ago I had changed myself, I could have made an impact on my family. My family and I could have made an impact on our town. Their impact could have changed the nation and I could indeed have changed the world.

Author: Unknown Monk 1100 A.D.

Event Information

As the Harvard-IESE Committee celebrates its 50th Anniversary, IESE welcomes Harvard Business School Dean, Nitin Nohria, to speak to alumni at an exclusive session on January 13, 2014. Entitled, “Innovative Leadership: Learning from Asian Companies,” the session will be held at IESE’s Barcelona campus and organized by the Alumni Association. Registration is here.

Diapositiva14

The Webinar:

This is the recording of the IESE Develop Your Communication Skills webinar we ran on 13th April 2013.  It is here on the IESE Business School YouTube channel.

Storify Summary of the Webinar via Twitter Hashtag: #iesewebinar

Resources cited in the Webinar: